Retail Media Ad Spend Forecast to Hit $200B in 2026, WARC Says
2026-08-21 · via invidis
Global retail media advertising spend is forecast to reach $200.4 billion in 2026, according to WARC Media, with the U.S. continuing to outpace Europe. WARC projects further growth to $223.4 billion in 2027, a rise of 11.5%, with retail media making up 15.2% of total global ad investment.
For operators of in-store screens, the relevant detail is where WARC says growth is coming from next. The firm expects overall growth to slow, falling to 9.8% in 2027 excluding Amazon, the lowest annual rate WARC has recorded for the sector. As ecommerce-driven retail media matures, WARC points to in-store screens and campaigns that span physical and digital channels as areas with room to expand.
Amazon's dominance underscores why. WARC says Amazon accounted for 78% of U.S. retail media spending in 2025, and took more than two-thirds of retail media spend in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. That concentration leaves limited room for other players to grow through ecommerce alone, pushing retailers toward physical store advertising as a differentiator.
WARC cites research showing more than 60% of U.S. grocery shoppers say they bought a product after seeing it on an in-store screen. Despite that, the release states in-store remains one of the least developed areas of retail media, a gap that digital signage vendors and retail media networks have been trying to close for years without matching the scale of online ad products.
WARC forecasts U.S. retail media network spending will reach $74.9 billion by 2028, a 13.6% increase that year, while European growth is expected to slow to single digits.
Alex Brownsell, head of content at WARC Media, said success in the sector now depends on integration across channels rather than growth from any single one.
The announcement does not detail which retailers or signage vendors are best positioned to capture in-store budgets, or how measurement standards for screen-based campaigns are expected to develop as the category matures.
The announcement in full
Reproduced from invidis for reference. Digital Signage Magazine did not write the text below.
Global retail media ad spend is set to hit $200.4 billion in 2026, with the U.S. once again outpacing Europe. Warc Media forecasts further growth to $223.4 billion in 2027.
Worldwide retail media advertising is forecast to reach $200.4 billion this year, with the U.S. continuing to show stronger growth than Europe, according to WARC Media .
Global spending is expected to increase another 11.5% in 2027 to $223.4 billion, with retail media accounting for 15.2% of total global advertising investment as retailers continue to expand their advertising businesses across ecommerce, connected TV and physical stores.
Growth, however, is beginning to moderate. Excluding market leader Amazon, WARC expects global retail media growth to fall to 9.8% in 2027, the lowest annual rate since it began tracking the sector. As the market matures, in-store screens and campaigns spanning physical and digital channels are emerging as opportunities for further growth.
The U.S. is the industry’s largest market and one of its strongest. WARC forecasts U.S. retail media network spending will reach $74.9 billion in 2028, representing 13.6% growth that year.
European growth is expected to slow to single digits, although the market remains substantial. Amazon remains dominant on both sides of the Atlantic. It accounted for 78% of U.S. retail media spending in 2025, while more than two-thirds of retail media spending in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK went to Amazon.
For the digital signage industry, one major opportunity lies inside physical stores. More than 60% of U.S. grocery shoppers say they purchased a product directly after seeing it on an in-store screen, according to research cited by WARC, yet in-store remains one of the least developed areas of retail media.
“Success now depends on smart integration with other channels and finding the optimal path to sustainable results,” said Alex Brownsell, head of content at WARC Media.
That integration could give in-store digital media a larger role as retailers look beyond ecommerce advertising and seek to connect campaigns across online, connected TV and physical retail environments.